机器人引领互联网改革

David大卫2014

机器人引领互联网改革
Robot，leading the reform of Internet【第108期】

谁能理解亚马逊的无人机想法的，请举手。

杰夫·贝佐斯的下一个高招——有朝一日，你的头顶会盘旋着一些小小无人机，将亚马逊包裹空投到美国人的家门口——已经引起了一轮又一轮的热议。在很多人看来，这似乎是包裹在公关炒作里的一个科幻空想，或者是一个彻头彻尾的噩梦。可能两者皆有。

不管你乐不乐意，电子商务正在改变这个世界的购物方式。同时它还在改变对服务的要求。隔日到达在以前很好，但现在不一样了。科技会像重塑其他东西一样，不断重塑老迈的递送行业，持这种看法的不只是贝佐斯一个。

为什么？一个重要原因是这里面有利可图。据研究机构eMarketer的数据，去年全球电商销售额突破了1万亿美元。两位数的增长几乎可以肯定至少会持续到2016年。还会有更多的东西需要递送。我们在手机上花几秒钟买下的东西，我们希望在几分钟后送到门口。

根据电商目前的爆炸式增长，一些专家说，递送行业会有巨大变革。联合包裹服务公司的历史可以追溯到1907年，每年要递送超过400万件包裹和文件。公司拥有超过9.5万台车辆和500架飞机。无处不在的UPS褐色车一年能创下550亿美元的收入。据报道，UPS也和亚马逊一样在研究无人机。谷歌也是。越来越多的电商公司在努力用老式的方法——人工递送——将东西更快地送到目的地。

“城市正越来越自动化，你将看到类似小型递送载具的随选递送系统，可以将任何东西送到任何地方，”斯坦福法学院互联网和社会中心研究员、斯坦福汽车研究中心成员布莱恩特·沃克·史密斯说。“不用去商店买牛奶，机器人或无人机会到一个库房去帮你买，然后送过来。”

史密斯说这种递送载具会有各种形状和大小。有的应该可以在小巷子里穿行，避开交通堵塞。还有的能冷藏食物。

电子前沿基金会董事、未来主义者布拉德·邓普顿说，目前的递送系统——“披萨例外”——对如今的网络购物者来说太过笨拙和昂贵了。包括无人机在内的自行载具可以给出一个更快、更便宜的选择。

“使用成本与现在的递送系统比起来就是个零头，”邓普顿说。他还说，这很快会开始吞噬许多快递公司的业务。

但要实现它，现实和潜在的障碍都是很大的。安全是其中一个顾虑。还有就是当前的技术。亚马逊展示的那种无人机是电动的，估计只能携带小型包裹，重量不超过5磅（约合2.2公斤）。这意味着多数的网购都是不适用的。

针对这个问题，无人机研究者哈尔·本内特可能找到了答案。他想把无人机的动力从电动改为喷气式发动机。他说这样的无人机可以携带50到100磅的包裹，在4.5万英尺（约1.3万米）高空以250英里的时速飞行。他的无人机还处在研究阶段，并且高度保密，但本内特说可能性是无穷的。

“想象一下，你在约塞米蒂爬山，想要吃个汉堡王的汉堡。你在GPS上订购就行了，”本内特说。

很多人可能不想去想象这些。无人机飞越酋长峰？送快递，而且，送的还是快餐？

可是，美国披萨店的常规递送服务事实上也是20世纪50年代才开始成形的，那是另一项科技崛起的体现：汽车。而后到了60年代，一个人在密西根州伊普斯兰提开了一家披萨店，以快速递送为首要目标。他的名字叫托马斯·莫纳甘。公司叫作：达美乐。

Who can understand the Amazon UAV idea, please raise your hands.

Jeff Bezos has a brilliant idea - one day, your head will be circled with some small UAV, which will drop the Amazon parcel to the Americans doorstep – which has caused a great attention. In the views of many people, this seems to be a fantasy of the expression or a downright nightmare. Probably it may be both.

Whether you believe it or not, e-commerce is changing the shopping way of the world. It is also changing the service requirements. The goods can be arrived on the next day was good but it is different now. Technology will change the aged delivery industry just like it changes other things. It is not only Bezos that holds such idea.

Why One important reason is that there is profitable. According to research firm eMarketer data, the total global sales amount of e-commerce exceeded $ 1 trillion last year. The Double-digit growth will almost certainly continue at least until 2016. There will be more things that need to be delivered. We hope that the things that we buy on the phone for a few seconds will arrive in a few minutes.

According to the current explosive growth of e-commerce, some experts said that there will be great changes in the delivery industry. The history of UPS can date back to 1907. There were more than four million packages and documents needed to be delivered per year. The company had more than 95,000 vehicles and 500 aircraft. Ubiquitous brown UPS vehicles have a revenue record of $ 55 billion in a year. According to reports, UPS and Amazon are also studying the UAV. So as Google. There are more and more e-commerce companies trying to use the old-fashioned way - -labour delivery - - to accelerate the delivery speech.

Cities are becoming more and more automated. You will see the delivery system which is similar to the small-size delivery vehicles to deliver anything to  anywhere, said Bryant Walker Smith, the researcher of Center for Internet and Society at Stanford Law School and the member of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford. You don’t need to go to the store to buy milk because the robots or the UAV will go to a warehouse to buy and send to you.

Smith said the delivery vehicles have a variety of shapes and sizes. Some should be able to walk through the alley to avoid traffic jams. Some can be to refrigerate foods.

Brad Templeton, the director and futurist of Electronic Frontier Foundation said that the current delivery system - except the Pizza  –is too clumsy and expensive for the online shoppers today. The Own vehicles including the UAV can give a faster and cheaper choice.

Compared with the delivery system, the using cost is only a small amount, said Templeton. He also said that it will soon begin devouring many courier business.

But to achieve it, there are great obstacles between the reality and potential. Safety is one of the concerns. So do the current technology. The UAV that the Amazon shown is electric which can only bring small parcel that are lower than 5 pounds (about 2.2 kg). This means that the majority of online shopping is not applicable.

For this problem, the researcher of UAV Hal Bennett may have found the answer. He wanted to change the power from the electric to jet engines. He said such a UAV can carry 50-100 pounds parcel and fly in 45,000 feet (about 13,000 meters)height with 250 miles per hour. His UAV is still in the research stage and is highly confidential, but Bennett said the possibilities are endless.

You can imagine that you are climbing in Yosemite and you want to eat a Burger King hamburger, you can order on the GPS, said Bennett.

Many people may not want to imagine that. Can the UAV fly over the Emirates peak to delivery and even delivery the fast food

However, the conventional delivery service of the United States pizza shop began in the 1950s, which is another manifestation of the rise of science and technology cars. And then to the 1960s, a man opened a pizza shop in Ypsilanti, Michigan, aiming at fast delivery. His name is Thomas Monaghan and his company called Domino's.

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